基于违约鉴别能力组合赋权的小企业信用评级——基于小型工业企业样本数据的实证分析

信用评级是衡量债务违约的可能性,因此评级体系要有违约风险识别能力,能够将违约客户和非违约客户显著地区分开.通过逼近理想点的思路,构建多目标规划模型求解最优的组合权重,并对中国某区域性商业银行1 814笔小型工业企业贷款进行实证分析.本文的创新与特色一是以非违约企业的数据到正理想点的距离代数和最小为第一个目标函数,以违约企业的数据到负理想点的距离代数和最小为第二个目标函数,构建多目标非线性规划模型进行组合赋权,在满足了“非违约企业的评价得分越高、违约企业的评价得分越低”要求的目标下得到最优的组合赋权的权重系数,使赋权结果保证了评级模型能够将违约企业与非违约企业最大地区分开.改变了现有研究的组合赋权脱离评价目的的弊端,改变了现有研究中违约与非违约企业的评价得分存在大量重叠、对两类企业的区分能力低的弊端.二是通过检验“违约企业的信用得分是否显著小于非违约企业的信用得分”的J-T非参数检验,验证信用评价模型的合理性.改变现有研究忽略对信用评价模型的合理性进行验证的弊端.三是经过实证,发现本研究建立的组合赋权模型的违约鉴别能力(Z=5.546)要高于现有研究的两种常用组合赋权模型、即基于方差最大的组合赋权(Z=4.298)和基于偏差最小的组合赋权(Z=5.182)     

China’s Choice of Analytical Models for Its Anti-Monopoly Law

Modern analytical models for anti-monopoly laws are a core element of the application of those laws. Since the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People’s Republic of China was promulgated in 2008, law enforcement and judicial authorities have applied different analytical models, leading to divergent legal and regulatory outcomes as similar cases receive different verdicts. To select a suitable analytical model for China’s Anti-Monopoly Law, we need to consider the possible contribution of both economic analysis and legal formalism and to learn from the mature systems and experience of foreign countries. It is also necessary to take into account such binding constraints as the current composition of China’s anti-monopoly legal system, the ability of implementing agencies and the supply of economic analysis, in order to ensure complementarity between the analytical model chosen and the complexity of economic analysis and between the professionalism of implementing agencies and the cost of compliance for participants in economic activities. In terms of institutional design, the models should provide a considered explanation of the legislative aims of the law’s provisions. It is necessary, therefore, to establish a processing model of behavioral classification that is based on China’s national conditions, applies analytical models using normative comprehensive analysis, makes use of the distribution rule of burden of proof, improves supporting systems related to analytical models and enhances the ability of public authorities to implement the law.     

案例行动学习法——效率与效果的兼顾

案例教学法、行动学习法等主流商科情境教学模式虽在国内商学院中得到广泛的应用,但囿于使用过程中的资源限制、实施变形及方法本身的局限性,导致教学双方的反馈尚不尽如人意。本文介绍了一种全新的商科情境教学方法--"案例行动学习法"。论文应用建构主义理论探讨了"案例行动学习法"的基本原理,研究了该种方法的能力建构机理,分析了其成为工商管理主流情境教学方法的效率与效果的平衡机理,介绍了前期应用的效果。研究结果表明,"案例行动学习法"作为一种全新的工商管理情境教学方法,能够将案例教学与行动学习两种方法的优点有机结合在一起,具备在全国范围内推广的条件。     

中国养老金:制度变革、问题清单与高质量发展

中国养老金制度经过近30多年来的深刻变革,从自我封闭的单位保障制走向开放式的社会保险制、从少数人的专利发展成为全体老年人的共同福祉、从单一责任主体走向多方分担责任、从单一层次走向多层次化,成为惠及所有老年人的社会保障制度,符合全球养老金制度发展的潮流与客观规律。但目前存在的理论认识误区、制度不统一、政策参数僵化、补充层次缺失及其导致的筹资失衡、待遇不公、预期紊乱、可持续性弱化和社会风险累积等问题正在日益显性化。这表明其仍是质量不高的制度安排。因此,中国养老金制度亟待走出逻辑混乱的思维定势与传统的路径依赖,通过明确公平建制理念、加快制度统一步伐、调适筹资责任分担机制、赋予相关参数弹性空间、理性推动多层次化等举措来为参与主体各方提供清晰稳定的预期,实现制度定型和高质量发展。     

Optimization problems for consecutive-2-out-of-n:G system

Abstract

This paper considers the optimization problems for a consecutive-2-out-of-n:G system where n is considered to be fixed or random. When the number of components is constant, the optimal number of components and the optimal replacement time are discussed by minimizing the expected cost rates. Furthermore, we focus on the above discussions again when n is a random variable. We give an approximate value of MTTF and propose the preventive replacement policy, respectively.     

植入式教学法在大学生职业生涯规划课中的应用

大学生职业生涯规划课是一门集理论型、实践型、经验型为一体的综合性课程。在课堂教学中，通过背景知识、色彩图案、哲理案例、互动体验的植入，充实优化教学内容，增强课程吸引力，激发学生的学习兴趣。通过探索启迪学生思想、更新学习观念以及差异化职业能力培养的教学方法，满足学生的个性化职业规划学习需求。     

高校国际合作班英语教学实践和反思

以盐城工学院国际合作班英语教学实践为例，分别从建设过硬的师资队伍、紧扣培养方案合理安排课程、实施情感教育、创新教学方法和改革考核办法等方面，探讨了国际合作班英语教学质量的提升路径，并对所存在的问题进行了反思。     

企业民主制度建设略论

经济民主是社会主义民主的重要组成部分，企业作为市场经济的重要主体，在企业中建立企业民主制度是社会主义市场经济的客观要求，同时也是社会主义民主的内在要求。但企业民主制度在建设过程中面临着许多困境和问题，文章试图结合这些问题探讨企业民主制度建设的相关路径，以期能够更好地完善我国企业民主制度建设。     

基于工作过程的高职商务英语课程体系构建研究

针对目前我国高职商务英语课程体系存在的问题,在社会和市场广泛调研的基础上,从典型工作任务归纳、学习领域课程开发、学习情境设计和配套设施建设四个方面提出高职商务英语课程体系构建方案。     

Toward General Principles for Resilience Engineering

Maintaining the performance of infrastructure-dependent systems in the face of surprises and unknowable risks is a grand challenge. Addressing this issue requires a better understanding of enabling conditions or principles that promote system resilience in a universal way. In this study, a set of such principles is interpreted as a group of interrelated conditions or organizational qualities that, taken together, engender system resilience. The field of resilience engineering identifies basic system or organizational qualities (e.g., abilities for learning) that are associated with enhanced general resilience and has packaged them into a set of principles that should be fostered. However, supporting conditions that give rise to such first-order system qualities remain elusive in the field. An integrative understanding of how such conditions co-occur and fit together to bring about resilience, therefore, has been less clear. This article contributes to addressing this gap by identifying a potentially more comprehensive set of principles for building general resilience in infrastructure-dependent systems. In approaching this aim, we organize scattered notions from across the literature. To reflect the partly self-organizing nature of infrastructure-dependent systems, we compare and synthesize two lines of research on resilience: resilience engineering and social-ecological system resilience. Although some of the principles discussed within the two fields overlap, there are some nuanced differences. By comparing and synthesizing the knowledge developed in them, we recommend an updated set of resilience-enhancing principles for infrastructure-dependent systems. In addition to proposing an expanded list of principles, we illustrate how these principles can co-occur and their interdependencies.